Sample briefs

Sample brief: Buy the house or keep renting?

Updated 20 July 2026

This is a complete worked Executive Decision Brief for one of the biggest personal decisions — buying versus renting. It shows how Cerno structures a decision that mixes money, timing and life, and records the reasoning. It is a decision-support aid, not financial advice.

Cerno is a private AI boardroom that runs consequential decisions through a structured process and returns a brief like the one below. For a purchase this size, use it to organise your thinking alongside a qualified professional.

Executive Decision Brief

Should I buy a house now, or keep renting?

Recommendation

Keep renting for now and keep saving — unless you'll stay put for 5+ years and can buy without stretching past a comfortable payment. The maths favours buying only over a long horizon.

Confidence

—

Risk

Med

Vote

3–2

Illustrative brief · Evidence Mode on

How this brief was reached

The board formed independent views, a Devil's Advocate challenged the leading one, and the vote came in 3–2 — a genuinely close call, with the dissent recorded. The Chairperson made the recommendation conditional on the one variable that dominates buy-vs-rent maths: how long you'll actually stay. The mid confidence is honest — this decision hinges on facts only you know.

The frameworks behind it

Buy-vs-rent is a case for reference-class forecasting (how long do people in your situation actually stay?) and regret minimisation (which way will you regret least, given both the money and the roots?).

Weighing buying versus renting? Put your own numbers and timeline through the boardroom.

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Frequently asked

Does Cerno give financial advice?

No. This is a decision-support aid that structures your thinking and records the reasoning — it is not legal, financial or tax advice. For a decision of this size, use it alongside a qualified professional, not instead of one.

Cerno is a decision-support aid, not legal, financial or medical advice. Where a decision turns on specialist ground, seek a qualified professional.

The regret minimisation framework

Regret minimisation asks which choice you'll regret least when you're old, looking back. It cuts through short-term noise on big personal decisions. Here's how to use it, with a worked example.

Reference-class forecasting: base rates for decisions

Reference-class forecasting predicts an outcome by looking at how similar cases actually turned out — the base rate — instead of trusting your inside view. Here's the method, with a worked example.

Sample brief: Should I take the counteroffer?

A complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a career decision — whether to accept a counteroffer from your current employer. Recommendation, recorded vote, risk and confidence, next actions. Illustrative.