How to make the decision well.
Genuinely useful guides to the decisions that matter — the frameworks that fit, the mistakes to avoid, and a worked Executive Decision Brief on every page. Cerno is a private AI boardroom that puts your decision through a structured process and hands you the brief.
Comparisons
How Cerno compares — fairly.Decision frameworks
The thinking tools, explained with worked examples.Second-order thinking, with examples
Second-order thinking asks 'and then what?' — tracing the consequences of the consequences, not just the first result. Here's how to do it, why first-order thinking misleads, and a worked example.
Read →The regret minimisation framework
Regret minimisation asks which choice you'll regret least when you're old, looking back. It cuts through short-term noise on big personal decisions. Here's how to use it, with a worked example.
Read →Reference-class forecasting: base rates for decisions
Reference-class forecasting predicts an outcome by looking at how similar cases actually turned out — the base rate — instead of trusting your inside view. Here's the method, with a worked example.
Read →Pre-mortem: the template, with worked examples
A pre-mortem imagines a decision has already failed, then works backwards to find why — surfacing risks before they happen. Here's the 5-step template, worked examples, and how to run one properly.
Read →One-way vs two-way door decisions
Some decisions are reversible (two-way doors) and some aren't (one-way doors). Telling them apart tells you how much deliberation a decision deserves. Here's the model, popularised by Jeff Bezos, with a worked example.
Read →Inversion: the mental model, explained
Inversion means solving a problem backwards — instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure, then avoid it. Here's how the model works, with a worked example and the five-step method.
Read →Sample briefs
Complete worked Executive Decision Briefs.Sample brief: Should we raise prices 15%?
A complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a pricing decision — whether to raise prices 15%. Recommendation, recorded vote with dissent, risk and confidence scores, assumptions and next actions. Illustrative.
Read →Sample brief: Should we open a second site?
A complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a business expansion decision — recommendation, recorded vote with dissent, risk and confidence scores, assumptions and next actions. Illustrative and anonymised.
Read →Sample brief: Should I take the counteroffer?
A complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a career decision — whether to accept a counteroffer from your current employer. Recommendation, recorded vote, risk and confidence, next actions. Illustrative.
Read →Sample brief: Buy the house or keep renting?
A complete worked Executive Decision Brief for the classic buy-vs-rent decision — recommendation, recorded vote with dissent, risk and confidence scores, assumptions and next actions. Illustrative, not financial advice.
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