Sample briefs

Sample brief: Should we open a second site?

Updated 20 July 2026

This is a complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a common business decision — opening a second site. It shows what Cerno hands you: a clear recommendation, the vote with dissent on the record, risk and confidence scores, the facts separated from the assumptions, and dated next actions.

Cerno is a private AI boardroom that runs consequential decisions through a structured process — advisor challenge, a recorded vote, risk and confidence scores — and returns a brief like the one below. This example is illustrative; your own would use your numbers.

Executive Decision Brief

Should we open a second site next quarter?

Recommendation

Proceed on a staged basis — sign a short lease with a break clause, run a small demand test in the target area, and hire the site lead before committing to fit-out.

Confidence

—

Risk

Med-High

Vote

3–2

Illustrative brief · Evidence Mode on

How this brief was reached

Several advisors formed independent positions first, a Devil's Advocate challenged the leading view, and the advisors voted — with the dissent kept on the record rather than smoothed over. The Chairperson then synthesised the recommendation, scored risk and confidence, and separated what's known from what's assumed. The 3–2 vote and the mid-high risk score are the honest signal: this is a conditional yes, not a confident one.

The frameworks behind it

This decision leans on a pre-mortem (what would make the second site fail?) and reference-class forecasting (how do comparable expansions actually turn out?). It's also close to a one-way door — hence the emphasis on a break clause and a staged commitment.

Weighing an expansion? Put your version through the boardroom and get a brief like this with your own numbers.

Run this decision in Cerno

Frequently asked

Is this a real company's decision?

No. It's an illustrative, anonymised example of what a Cerno Executive Decision Brief looks like for an expansion decision. Your own brief would reflect your specific numbers and context.

Pre-mortem: the template, with worked examples

A pre-mortem imagines a decision has already failed, then works backwards to find why — surfacing risks before they happen. Here's the 5-step template, worked examples, and how to run one properly.

Reference-class forecasting: base rates for decisions

Reference-class forecasting predicts an outcome by looking at how similar cases actually turned out — the base rate — instead of trusting your inside view. Here's the method, with a worked example.

Sample brief: Should we raise prices 15%?

A complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a pricing decision — whether to raise prices 15%. Recommendation, recorded vote with dissent, risk and confidence scores, assumptions and next actions. Illustrative.